What’s wrong with the Des Moines poll?
In looking through the figures provided by the Des Moines Register in their poll, something really stood out: the high number of Independents supporting Barack Obama. Independents? In a Democratic caucus?
I have not been able to find the poll itself online. But David Yepsen of the DMR gives some interesting information on the details, calling the numbers “soft.” In particular:
* A lot of Democratic caucus-goers aren’t all that Democratic. Some 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they are independents, and another 5 percent say they are Republicans. (Technically, they’ll all have to re-register as Democrats to participate, but that can be done at the caucus site.) Put another way, 54 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they’re Democrats. In 2004, it was 80 percent.
Let me make sure I have this straight: 40 percent of the folks polled called themselves independents? Doesn’t that goose the numbers a wee bit? Yepsen thinks so:
Will some of these fair-weather Democrats not bother to show up? If they don’t, it will change the outcome. If pollsters adjust the party identifications in 2008 to look like they did in 2004, Clinton could beat Obama 31 percent to 29 percent.
Or, in the unlikely event just the registered Democrats who say they’ll definitely show up are counted, Clinton gets 33 percent, Obama gets 27 percent and Edwards gets 25 percent.
Of course, the Clinton campaign noticed this, too:
The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.
The bottom line is that polling in a caucus state such as Iowa is inherently difficult. I do not doubt that Obama has lured many independents to his camp but I don’t believe the participants in the caucus will be a bare (54%) Democratic majority.
Thank goodness this madness is coming to an end soon.
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Interesting stuff. I found the poll and a few things jumped out at me. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, which could mean either a virtual dead heat or a much larger Obama lead. A lot of his support is from first-timers.
But this really caught my eye: Hillary has an age gap with Iowa women. Her support among women 35 and under is much less than Obama’s, but greater than his among women 55+. They’re about even for women in the ages in between.
Difficult polling in a caucus state, indeed.
I found the Register’s article here:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080101/NEWS09/301010015/-1/iowapoll07
Happy New Year, Vivian!
If you read the Iowa blogs you will understand it it not possible to poll for a caucus. It is not just a question of turnout and second choices, the process, by its nature, gives disproportionate power to rural areas. You simply cannot poll for that sort of thing.
I think it is possible that all those independents will show up. Normally I would laugh at the suggestion, but many people feel the country is off track and want to do something.
The madness won’t end until Nov. 4.
I hope Edwards wins, but we will have to see.
[...] January 1 poll by the Des Moines Register showed Obama’s lead over Clinton widening. He had been polling well for some time, and this [...]
Obama wins Iowa « The Women’s Post said this on January 3, 2008 at 10:52 pm |